Mean Reversion Trading Strategies Backtest With Mean Reverting Indicators

In this example with TSLA, we see a sharp decline that wasn’t sustainable in the morning trading session. After confirming 3 bullish reversal candles and a gravestone doji, TSLA marched right back to the VWAP in red. Notice how the first image in white background is following a steady trend upward. In parabolic stocks, FOMO is often reaching a fever pitch that is unsustainable. In this example, we have the 20ema in blue, the 50sma in red, and the 200sma in black.

  1. On the chart below, we have dragged West Texas Crude Oil on to the existing Brent Crude Oil chart to compare the two types of oil and look for potential divergence and a possible reversion to the mean trade.
  2. As you can see in the image above, this drawing tool shows three lines.
  3. In other words, for any given variable, the farther the value is from the mean (outliers), the more likely it is that it will revert to the mean.
  4. The other approach for trading the mean reversion approach is to use support and resistance lines.
  5. Hence, they anticipate that GOOG’s price will revert to its historical mean and decide to short sell, predicting a price decline.

You need the right skills and the right mindset to allow such a strategy to work. It’s not discussed much but another risk factor is, believe it or not, yourself, as in your frame of mind and trading psychology. Finally, it is important to set stop-loss orders and profit targets. Figure out the right amount to risk and don’t commit https://forex-review.net/ anything more than that. All of the examples above demonstrate this approach of waiting for confirmation and not just blindly jumping in. To avoid this, pay attention to the larger price context, and enter a trade only upon confirmation, which often means a pattern breakout or a breakout from either support or resistance.

Mean reversion and technical indicators

Instead, they’re on the lookout for signals that a trend is genuinely losing its pep, indicating an imminent shift. Considering that the upper band represents two standard deviations. But how deep might fbs forex review the correction go is something that we couldn’t predict. For those who get antsy during the snail-paced climbs of trending markets, the brisk nature of reversal trading could be a refreshing change.

Forex Trading Using Mean Reversion

Now, even though this mean reversion trading strategy has a high winning rate, there will still be losers along the way. HowToTrade.com helps traders of  all levels learn how to trade the financial markets. Now, let’s take a look at an example of how to trade financial assets using the mean reversion strategy. For this mean reversion trade example, we will use the intraday mean reversion strategy. From the Nikkei Chart below, using the Bollinger Bands indicator, we can see how mean reversion works in trading.

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For example, during the pandemic Netflix experienced a spike in its share price as demand for the streaming service grew. But, with the pandemic easing and the rise of competing streaming services, $NFLX has since lost its gains and returned to the price it was going for in March 2020. An investor with knowledge of mean reversion and how it works could have anticipated this price dive during the pandemic, as they would have known that the spike wouldn’t last forever. In Mechanical Engineering from the University of Michigan, and an MBA from the University …

Now, this trading strategy can be applied to other markets but for this post, I’ll focus only on the stock market. Mean reversion trading is a strategy that buys when an asset price is low, and then sell it on the next “bounce” higher. When the standard deviation of an asset is high, it suggests that the price movement is more volatile and, hence, may revert to the mean more significantly. Based on our backtesting result, on average your trades should reach the second target within 1-3 days. The longer you keep your position open, the lower the chances of the trade to succeed.

In trading, mean reversion can be applied to a variety of market metrics, including price, volatility, and other indicators. They may then look to buy or sell those assets in anticipation of a reversion to their long-term average price. An oversold market is when the current price of an asset is significantly lower than its average price, while an overbought market when the current price is significantly higher than the average price.

Mean Reversion VS Trend Following

Just because a price has risen doesn’t mean it will fall to the mean; the mean could also rise to meet the price. Trades can use various metrics, such as distance from the SMA, to help to establish when the price could revert back to the mean. However, as always in trading, these can only provide signals and are not a clear indication of reversal. They are all based on the same concept but use a different calculation approach.

Then focus on buying those stocks which have the highest ROC values as these are the strongest stocks right now and their price is likely to continue higher. You’re more likely to make money buying pullbacks when a stock is in an uptrend (than shorting it). Then, we’ll wait for our exit signal which is for the 10-period RSI to cross above 40 or, after 10 trading days (whichever comes first).

However, in most cases, the approach works better in the stock market. One of the easiest mean reversion strategies is known as regression channels. As mentioned above, a channel is a tool that connects several support and resistance points. Therefore, after drawing a regression channel, you can buy when the price moves to the lower side and exit when it moves to the middle line.

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To see how exactly it can be used in this way, we provide the following samples. Both strategies test buying and selling rules built around this financial indicator. Your entry trigger may be a reversal candlestick pattern like the hammer. There are many mean reversion trading strategies out there, but we will focus on the ones we know that work.

Mean Reversion Trading Strategies

A Z-score of 4 indicates that the stock is significantly overvalued compared with its historical mean. This could be a signal to short the stock, as it is expected to revert to its mean. Next, the standard deviation of the price series is computed, to understand the volatility.

For example, they use the approach to find pullbacks, which they can use to buy the dip. Opposite, the lower the readings, the more likely it gets with a trend reversal in the opposite direction. You can make a lot of money for over a year, only to see most or all of it disappear in a brief bear market.

These include the Mean Reversion Indicator (MRI), which can help traders identify the point at which an asset’s price has deviated significantly from its historical mean price. The essence is in recognizing clear entry and exit points, employing technical markers such as Bollinger Bands and RSI to confirm those points, and ensuring rigorous risk management. For instance, if the current price of an asset is two standard deviations above the mean, it could be interpreted as overextended, indicating a possible reversion to the mean may be impending. On the other hand, prices two standard deviations below the mean may represent significant undervaluation and potential buying opportunities. Once you’ve grasped the basics, there are many further technical indicators to help hone your trading strategy.

Mean reversion offers investors a method that can be applied to various data points on a chart in order to acquire actionable information that can be used to formulate various investment strategies. One strategy that traders may consider for forex trading is looking at how far the price tends to deviate from the mean before reverting back to the mean. On an asset’s trading chart, the mean is easily represented by a simple moving average (SMA). Over time, prices tend to oscillate around the average or SMA, eventually returning to it. Mean reversion is a financial theory which suggests that, after an extreme price move, asset prices tend to return back to normal or average levels.

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